When we speak of General Soleimani, it is important to emphasise significance for Iran and the effect he had on the entire region.
General Soleimani was one of the most influential persons in Iran, the veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, the commander of the special unit of Al Quds or Jerusalem, which perpetuates special operations outside the Iranian boarders.
Iran is the largest military force in the Middle East, with over half a million active soldiers in land army units, aeroplane units, the navy and in the Iranian revolutionary guard and with 350000 standby personnel members. The Iranian revolutionary guard is an elitist corps of state military structures of Iran, whose main goal is to protect the tradition of the Islamic Revolution.
The Al Quds unit has a significant role in fight against terrorism in the whole region, in much thanks to the late General Soleimani. His extraordinary capabilities and military experience brought forth the spreading of the Iranian influence throughout the region. Besides his marvellous field operations, he expressed his capacity to formulate alliances which created a firm structure in fighting against terrorist forces on one side and against the American directive on the other side.
When we talk about the Iranian influence within the region, it concerns Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, as well as Afghanistan and Yemen. The Iranian influence in Iraq has been empowered after the American invasion on that country and after toppling Saddam’s regime. Iran has established a strong collaboration with Shia Muslims in Iraq, providing aid to this country during the war. The influence in Syria and Yemen has expanded through battle and with the aid of Iranian forces in these war-torn countries.
The contributions of Iran and of Hezbollah against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq is enormous. The Russian Federation joined the struggle who brought forth the decision about military assistance at the invitation of the president Bashar Al Assad in 2015. General Soleimani had a significant logistical role in unifying the battle of Syria, Russia, Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran against terrorism, with his great operational experience and his familiarity with the situation at hand.
The media often report claims of the conflict between the Sunni and the Shia in the Middle East, however it primarily concerns the political conflict where on one side we get the axis of resistance (Iran, Iraq and Syria in coalition with Russia), and on the other the strategic partnership of Israel and Saudi Arabia. The key of conflict lies within the political opposition of these sides.
The political struggle between Iran and the US of the similar intensity has been lasting since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, when Iran, by toppling the regime of Raza Pahlavi, freed itself from the quiet American-Israeli occupation.
Iran has been for many years under the pressure of America’s political and economic sanctions, whose aim was to exhaust Iran while organising internal riots and coups.
There is a special war waged against Iran, war which is propaganda-oriented and information-oriented, with no regard for history, culture or tradition of this land.
We have heard many times from the American officials that they would not allow the outspread of Iran’s influence within the region. The question arises, who has the right to stop the spread of one country’s influence in the region which holds such rich history, culture and tradition.
Iran is fully surrounded by American bases wherein dozens of American soldiers are situated, throughout the region. However, we keep hearing from the US that Iran is a threat to the entire region. The matrix question is, when did Iran attack, now is that considered danger?
If on the other side we analyse attacks of the US, the list is much longer. The danger lies in the aggressive interventional politics of the US, which led to the destabilisation of whole regions, including the Middle East and the Balkans.
Since the intervention in Yugoslavia, the US have abolished the international law and embedded the law of force. They allowed the redrawing of international borders, just as Trump did by attributing the Golan plateau to Israel. They allow themselves to murder the high-ranking official of other countries, which is an act of terrorism. It was precisely thus that General Soleimani was killed, who was on an official visit to Iraq as the high-ranking official of Iran. The question is, why did Trump issue the assassination order on General Soleimani?
Washington claims that General Soleimani represented a threat for America and that he was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans. However, such a claim holds no evidence. The probably reason is the destabilisation of Iran and initiating conflict in this country. Unfortunately, the attacks on the Iranian high-ranking officials continued. The leading Iranian nuclear physicist, the official of the Ministry of Defence, Mohsen Fahrizade, was recently killed. Iran blames the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia for the deaths.
The attacks on Iran are only strengthened by the resistance towards the US and their allies’ policies in the Middle East. The leaving administration of Donald Trump showed a remarkable Iranophobia, no missing the opportunity to attack and criticise Iran. However, even though the USA wanted for a very long time to intervene in a military way in Iran, they still cannot make such a step. American interventions in the Middle East brought this region into a state of chaos, which indicates that the US held no long-term strategic planning for the stabilisation of the region, whereas occupation was the main goal. In any case, American policies in the Middle East faced a debacle. I think that the US will not risk to make bigger losses and to have capacities to enter a military confrontation with Iran. Their military presence in the Middle East will soon wither. Previous elections within the US showed that this country is in a deep state of crisis and I believe that the Americans no longer have a chance to give lectures on democracy and human rights.
It remains to be seen how new Biden’s government will address the Middle East. If this is the continuation of Barack Obama’s policy, the US will continue their talks with Iran about accepting a nuclear treaty which Trump abolished. That would also indicate that the relation towards Israel would be changed, which would bring forth criticism about the inhabiting of Israeli neighbourhoods within Palestinian territories and the abolishment of moving the American embassy to Tel Aviv in Jerusalem. Biden’s administration could soothe the relationships in the Middle East, which were strenuous during Trumps’ unreserved support of Israel.
We have to wait for presidential elections in summer of 2021, in Iran, and see who the new president of Iran will be and what type of communication he will establish with the USA. Iran for now insists that they will go on with their nuclear programme if the US do not return to their framework of diplomatic negotiations.
December 22, 2020,
Dragana Trifković, Head of Centre for Geostrategic Studies.